- The development of a disturbance in the Windward Islands is being monitored.
- This system is likely to become a tropical storm when it reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea.
- It will bring heavy rains and gusts of wind to the Caribbean regardless of development.
Tropical storm watches have been issued in parts of the Caribbean for what could become Tropical Storm Fred, with flood threats and some wind impacts in the coming days and an uncertain future for Florida this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center issued tropical storm warnings Monday afternoon for Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Saba and Sint Eustatius, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and much of the Dominican Republic’s coastline.
This means that tropical storm conditions (winds of at least 39 mph) are possible in these areas.
The NHC designated a low-pressure system that spreads showers and thunderstorms in the Lesser Antilles as “Potential Sixth Tropical Cyclone” on Monday afternoon, even though it is not yet a depression or storm, without a closed low-pressure circulation. on the surface.
This “potential tropical cyclone“The procedure allows the NHC to issue alerts and warnings in advance for a system that has not yet been developed.
The NHC says this system is likely to turn into a tropical storm on Tuesday as it generally moves west-northwest. The next tropical storm in the Atlantic will be named Fred.
Some parts of the Lesser Antilles will likely experience gusts of wind, rain and thunderstorms.
Heavy local rains and gusty winds will move through Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday and the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday.
Up to 6 inches of rain could fall in these areas, causing localized flash floods and landslides.
An uncertain future
Dry air, interaction with the ground, and possible increased wind shear could be factors limiting the ability of this system to intensify later this week as it moves in the general direction of Hispaniola, Cuba, the southern Bahamas and Florida.
More of those negative factors, such as a track over the rugged Hispaniola Mountains or more wind shear, could dissipate the system. Fewer of those factors, like a track that avoids much of the Caribbean islands, could result in a stronger “Fred.”
Given all the potential hurdles we outlined above, it is too early to determine what other impacts, if any, could be in Florida this weekend.
Regardless, it looks like at least one surge of humidity will hit Florida this weekend, squeezing out more frequent and concentrated areas of more intense rain than typical afternoon thunderstorms.
For now, the interests of the Caribbean to the Bahamas and Florida should monitor their progress in the coming days. Now is a good time to update or develop your hurricane plans.
Tropical activity generally increases during August as we approach the peak of the hurricane season, so it is not surprising that there is an area to observe tropical development.
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